Inflation Fight Continues

June 30, 2023

Interest rates continued their sideways trend as we close the first half of 2023. Let's discuss what happened last week and look into the future.

The European Central Bank forum was the main event this week. Central bankers from across the globe, including our Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke about the state of their countries economy as well as monetary policy. A common theme was the need to continue to fight inflation, which is still persistently high and above central bank targets.

Here at home, the Federal Reserve's favored gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), is still running in the mid 4.00% range, more than double the Fed's target of 2%. The Federal Reserve recently stated they see inflation coming down to their goal of 2% in 2025. This means we should expect short-term rates to stay higher for longer and a high possibility of no rate cuts this year.

A Breakout is Coming

Mortgage Bonds have been unable to break above 100. Until this happens, home loan rates simply can't get better. While in the Treasury market, the 10-year Note has a breakout coming. The 10-year yield, currently at 3.80%, sits at the top of a very tight range between 3.68% and 3.83%. Whichever way the yield breaks will likely determine the next directional move for home loan rates. So, this is a story worth following.

Bottom line: Long-term interest rates peaked back in October and have gradually inched lower, making a series of lower highs and lower lows overtime. Looking at the second half of the year, with inflation continuing to moderate and unemployment continuing to rise, we should expect a continued gradual decline in long-term interest rates. Coupled with robust housing demand which has set us up for a much better housing market in the back half of 2023.

Government Agency Approvals

FHA Non-Supervised Mortgagee Approval #:
VA Automatic Lender Approval #:

Mortgagee/Loss Payee Clause

Carrington Mortgage Services LLC
P.O. Box 692408
San Antonio, TX 78269-2408

Industry Links

Loan Limits LookupMortgage Letters
This information is provided for your convenience and Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC makes no warranties concerning the accuracy or completeness of any of the information. This is not financial or legal advice and should not be taken as such. This information is for mortgage professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers.
CAREERSINVESTORSabout uswholesale

An Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. Copyright 2007 - 2023 . Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC headquartered at 1600 South Douglass Road, Suites 110 & 200-A, Anaheim, CA 92806. NMLS ID # 2600. Toll Free # 800-561-4567. All rights reserved. Restrictions may apply. All loans are subject to credit, underwriting and property approval guidelines. Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) Consumer Access Web Site:

The content of this website is intended for licensed third-party originators or brokers only and may not be duplicated or disseminated to the public. Carrington Mortgage Services is one of the leading wholesale mortgage lenders.

Government Agency Approval | FHA Non-Supervised Mortgage Approval #: 24751-0000-5 | VA Automatic Lender Approval #: 902324-00-00

linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram