Three Reasons Why Rates May Have Bottomed

February 14, 2020

Last Week in Review: What the Market Is Saying

Solid economic numbers continue to be reported. We are seeing a historically strong labor market, rising wages, high consumer and business confidence, and an overall boost in housing. Bonds hate good news and there is simply too much good news to go around at the moment.Home loan rates continue to hover right near three-year lows. There are many "smart" folks on Wall Street who say rates are going to push even lower at some point...and they may be right. But what if they're wrong? What if rates have bottomed for the foreseeable future?

Yes, locking a home loan right here would be wise.

Here are three reasons why rates may have bottomed -- at least for now:

        1. Signs of improvement around the globe. One of the main tailwinds to our low rates is the relative underperformance of countries around the globe. It appears that many parts of the world are doing a bit better thanks to central bank monetary stimulus. If this trend continues, it's tough to see much better rates anytime soon.
        2. The trading action in the Treasury market. This may be signaling that further rate improvement from here may be tough to achieve. In recent weeks, in the face of heightened fear and uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus (which usually lowers rates), the 10-year Note yield was unable to move beneath 1.50%, which is also close to a historically low yield seen just a few times in the last decade. If the 10-year Note can't improve in the face of very uncertain news, a near-term bottom might be in place.

So, what would push rates to historically low levels? It would likely take some very bad news like an escalation of the coronavirus outbreak or possibly something worse.

Bottom line: the U.S. economy is performing very well. Rates are near historic lows and the markets are telling us this may be about as good as things get -- for now. So, if you, your family, friends, or clients are considering a home loan, now is a terrific time to lock in at incredible rates.

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FHA Non-Supervised Mortgagee Approval #:
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902324-00-00

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